|EAA - Ekonomisk kalkyl för jordbrukssektorn|
JO 45 SM 0503
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The value of agricultural output is expected to decrease by 1.7 % in 2005 compared with 2004. Both crop output and animal output decreases. The decrease is 1.6 % and 2.5 % respectively. The decrease in crop output is mainly from cereals and industrial crops while the decrease in animal output is mainly from milk and egg production.
The factor income of agriculture is expected to have decreased with 1.8 %. The factor income is calculated as the sum of production value and direct subsidies, which have increased during the year, minus the costs of intermediate consumption and fixed capital consumption. These costs have also increased during the year.
The total harvest of cereals decreased preliminary with 8 % in 2005 compared with 2004. The decrease can mainly be attributed to a smaller area of cultivation. A decrease of 9 % has been reported. The decrease of the area of cultivation most likely is an effect of the new subsidy system for agriculture in the EU. There were also unfavourable conditions for sowing in the autumn of 2004. The prices of cereals have increased slightly according to preliminary figures.
The harvest of oil seeds decreased with 12 % according to preliminary figures. The main reason is that the yield per hectare decreased in 2005 compared to 2004. The year 2004 had very high yields per hectare and even though there was a decrease in the yield per hectare, the yield was higher than normal.
The price of potatoes decreases according to preliminary figures while the volume of potatoes increases.
The prices of pigs and cattle increases and the prices of poultry decreases compared with 2004. In all, the prices of animals is estimated to increase in 2005.
The slaughtering of pigs and cattle has decreased in 2005 according to preliminary figures. The slaughtering of poultry has increased.
The quantity of eggs delivered to wholesalers and the quantity of milk delivered to dairies are expected to have decreased in 2005 compared with 2004. The prices of eggs and milk are expected to decrease slightly during the same period.
In the middle of December Eurostat will publish the first estimates of agricultural income in the member states in 2005. The development is usually measured by indicator A, i.e. the change of real agricultural factor income per annual work unit. On the assumption that labour input continues to fall (-1.4 %) and that the rise in the implicit price index of GDP is approximately 1.2 %, indicator A will show a decrease by 1.5 % for Sweden. However, the uncertain factors must be stressed.