|EAA – Ekonomisk kalkyl för jordbrukssektorn|
JO 45 SM 1301
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The value of agricultural output is expected to increase by almost 1 % in 2012 compared with 2011. Crop output is expected to increase by slightly more than 7 %, while animal output is expected to decrease by almost 5 %.
The total harvest of cereals is estimated to 5.1 million metric tonnes in 2012. This is 10 % more than the harvest 2011. This can mainly be explained by higher yields in 2012 compared with 2011. The output prices of cereals are expected stay on a high level.
The total harvest of rape and turnip rape in 2012 increased about 30 % in 2012 compared with 2011. The prices for the crop year 2012/13 are expected to decrease a little bit.
The slaughtering of cattle is expected to decrease by 8 % during 2012. At the same time prices are expected to increase by 3 %. The slaughtering of pigs is also expected to decrease by 10 % and the prices are expected to increase.
The quantity of milk delivered to wholesalers is expected to increase slightly in 2012. The output price of milk, though, is expected to decrease by about 8 % in 2012 and this is the main reason for the decrease in the value of animal output. From January 2012 the special beef premium, approximately 300 million SEK, was transferred to the Single Payment Scheme. This, of course, also contributed to the decrease in the value of animal output in 2012.
The value of the output of the agricultural industry at basic prices is expected to increase by 1 % in 2012 compared with 2011. At the same time, total intermediate consumption is expected to increase about 1.4 %.
The factor income is calculated as the sum of production value and direct subsides less the expenses of intermediate consumption and fixed capital consumption. The factor income is expected to decrease by almost 1.5 % in 2012.
Although the special beef premium was transferred to the Single Payment Scheme from January 2012, the item “Other subsidies on production” is estimated to decrease by 1.5 % or 140 million SEK. The reason for this is the strong position of the Swedish currency during 2012. The decrease in subsidies leads to an expected decrease in the net operating surplus by 2 %.