|EAA – Ekonomisk kalkyl för jordbrukssektorn|
JO 45 SM 2001
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The agricultural industry output is expected to increase in 2019, following the sharp, mainly drought related decline of 2018. The weather has been better and the autumn sown areas were relatively large in 2018, both contributing to a greater harvest in 2019. The expected crop output value increase is 11 % and that of the animal output is 2 %. When combined, this is expected to result in an increase of 6 %, or 3.9 billion SEK, in the overall output value of the agricultural industry in 2019.
Due to the larger harvest, crop prices are expected to decrease during the crop year 2019/2020. The feed prices, however, have remained relatively high and so have the overall expenses. Total production values are expected to increase and so are the subsidies, due to the devaluation of the Swedish crown and the considerable drought-related financial support. The entrepreneurial income is expected to increase by 77 % in 2019, or 3.8 billion SEK. 1.1 billion SEK out of this increase consists of subsidies.
The biggest contributor to this year’s expected increase in the agricultural sector output, as well as the decrease in 2018, is the crop output. For the crop year 2019/2020, the harvest of cereals is expected to increase by 89 %, while prices decrease by 29 %, resulting in an output value increase of 38 %. When compared to the average of the five crop years 2013/2014 to 2017/2018 instead, the cereal output value is still 15 % higher. The value of industrial crop output is expected to increase by 54 %.
The animal output is expected to increase in 2019 as well, but with more moderate percentages. The cattle output value is expected to increase by 1 %, as both prices and production have risen. A 2 % decrease is expected from the pig production output; while the prices have increased 2 %, the volume has decreased by 4 %. Poultry is expected to have the most marked increase in output value in the animal sector, with increases in both prices and volume resulting in a 14 % overall increase. Lastly, the value of the dairy output is expected to increase by 2 %, as higher prices outweigh a reduction in produced volumes. All in all, this gives an expected value increase of 2 % for the total animal output.
As mentioned earlier, the output of the agricultural industry is estimated to increase by 6 % compared with 2018. The intermediate consumption is expected to increase as well, by 1 %. While feed costs have gone down somewhat, the cost of energy and other expenses have risen. Subtracting the intermediate consumption from the output value equals the gross value added, which is expected to increase by 23 %. Taking the fixed capital consumption into account results in the net value added, which is expected to increase by 84 %. Adding the subsidies on production, we get the factor income and it is estimated to be 4 billion SEK higher in 2019 compared to 2018, an increase of 30 %. Finally, the compensation of employees is expected to increase by 2 % and rents by 4 %, while interest rate expenses are expected to decrease by 4 %. This results in a net entrepreneurial income increase of 77 %, or about 3.8 billion SEK.
Eurostat will publish the EU member states’ own estimates of their agricultural industry income. Indicator A, the development in real factor income per annual working unit, is the most common one to use for comparisons. For Sweden, it is estimated to increase by 30 % in 2019, but this is still an uncertain prediction. The final estimate will be published in October 2020.